{"id":242,"date":"2010-01-22T12:49:12","date_gmt":"2010-01-22T19:49:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.coloradocollege.edu\/atb\/?p=242"},"modified":"2010-01-22T12:49:12","modified_gmt":"2010-01-22T19:49:12","slug":"dan-johnsons-olympic-predictions-making-media-waves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sites.coloradocollege.edu\/atb\/2010\/01\/22\/dan-johnsons-olympic-predictions-making-media-waves\/","title":{"rendered":"Dan Johnson’s Olympic predictions making media waves"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dan Johnson, CC associate professor of economics, is making waves in the media world with his Olympic medals predictions. Television stations, newspapers, and blogs around the world are picking up his predictions, which were released January 18. Within 36 hours, he was featured in Forbes: http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/2010\/01\/19\/olympic-medal-predictions-business-sports-medals.html<\/a>;\u00a0on Canadian television: http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/video\/#\/News\/TV_Shows\/The_National\/ID=1390655465<\/a>;
\nin the Toronto Sun: http:\/\/www.torontosun.com\/sports\/vancouver2010\/news\/2010\/01\/19\/12531926.html<\/a>; on a Reuters blog: http:\/\/blogs.reuters.com\/sport\/2010\/01\/22\/economic-model-sees-winter-olympics-gold-for-canada\/<\/a>; in an Italian newspaper (link not available); and cited in an on-air report by Bloomberg.
\nJohnson uses only non-athletic data to make his forecasts. He considers per capita income, population, climate, and political structure of the nations competing, along with the obvious advantage of hosting the Games. This last factor works heavily in Canada\u2019s favor this year, putting them one medal ahead of the United States and Norway in the model\u2019s predictions.
\nAs a Canadian-born economist, that prediction warms Johnson\u2019s heart, but he insists that the results are pure statistics.
\nJohnson first constructed the model with a colleague before the 2000 Summer Games in Sydney, Australia. Since then, the model has proven itself over five consecutive Olympics, averaging a correlation of 94 percent with actual medal counts, and 87 percent for gold medals specifically.
\nThe big story this year, from Johnson\u2019s perspective is that Canada should win three more medals than it won in Torino in 2006, due primarily to its home-field advantage. Canada is predicted to narrowly edge out the U.S., Norway, Austria, Sweden, Russia, and Germany for the title. However, Russia is predicted to win the race for gold medals, edging out Germany and winning three more than Canada or the U.S.
\nWhy does he do it? Johnson says that he treats the model\u2019s predictions as \u2018benchmarks\u2019 to help set national expectations at realistic levels. \u201cWe all subconsciously know,\u201d he says, \u201cthat small, poor, warm nations are at a disadvantage when it comes to the Winter Games. Our model quantifies those effects, so that each nation can celebrate victory if they exceed the model\u2019s predictions. For a small nation, winning three medals is an amazing accomplishment. For the U.S. or Germany or Russia, it\u2019s appropriate to expect a lot more.\u201d
\nThis year, Johnson decided to publicly report only the predictions for nations that are expected to win 10 or more medals. \u201cWe can all celebrate with the nations not on the list, every time that they win a medal,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Accuracy rate of Johnson\u2019s predictions for total medals won by a country:
\n\u2022 2008 Beijing Summer Games:<\/strong> 93 percent
\n\u2022 2006 Torino Winter Games: <\/strong>93 percent
\n\u2022 2004 Athens Summer Games: <\/strong>94 percent
\n\u2022 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games: <\/strong>94 percent
\n\u2022 2000 Sydney Summer Games: <\/strong>95 percent<\/p>\n

Accuracy rate of Johnson\u2019s predictions for gold medals won by a country:
\n\u2022 2008 Beijing Summer Games: <\/strong>92 percent
\n\u2022 2006 Torino Winter Games: <\/strong>89 percent
\n\u2022 2004 Athens Summer Games: <\/strong>86 percent
\n\u2022 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games: <\/strong>85 percent
\n\u2022 2000 Sydney Summer Games: <\/strong>84 percent
\nA complete news release with Johnson’s predictions can be seen at: http:\/\/www.coloradocollege.edu\/news_events\/releases\/2010\/Jan.%2010\/Olympic%20predictions.asp<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dan Johnson, CC associate professor of economics, is making waves in the media world with his Olympic medals predictions. Television stations, newspapers, and blogs around the world are picking up his predictions, which were released January 18. Within 36 hours, he was featured in Forbes: http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/2010\/01\/19\/olympic-medal-predictions-business-sports-medals.html;\u00a0on Canadian television: http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/video\/#\/News\/TV_Shows\/The_National\/ID=1390655465; in the Toronto Sun: http:\/\/www.torontosun.com\/sports\/vancouver2010\/news\/2010\/01\/19\/12531926.html; on … <\/p>\n

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