Our textbook reading for today made supernovae sound like some of the most exciting natural phenomena humans have ever observed. A star shining so brightly that it is visible during the daytime is almost unfathomable. I immediately began trying to figure out if a supernova would be visible from Earth during my lifetime. Supernovae are detected often in other galaxies, and a supernova in a neighboring galaxy such as Andromeda would definitely be visible to the naked eye. But for maximum effect, I am most curious about a supernova in our galaxy.

According to the textbook, the last supernova to occur in the Milky Way galaxy was of η Carinae beginning in 1837 and fluctuating in brightness for twenty years. Also, the textbook states that supernovae occur (on average) once every hundred years in any one galaxy. With the last supernova occurring 177 years ago, it sounds like we are long overdue!!

Image Source: annesastronomynews.com/photo-gallery-ii/

Researchers agree with that sentiment. According to a probabilistic model constructed at The Ohio State University, there is nearly a 100% chance that a supernova will occur in the Milky Way within the next 50 years. Unfortunately, they concluded that there is only a 10-50% chance (dependent on the observer’s location on the Earth’s surface and the position of the supernova in the sky) that it will be visible from Earth. A visible supernova in my lifetime is not the foregone conclusion that one might expect, but is certainly still an exciting possibility.

Sources and Further Reading:

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/supernova50.htm

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2012/01/26/our-galaxys-next-supernova/