By Emily Laur
China’s rapid accumulation of wealth in the past few decades has made waves in the international community. Despite the country’s leapfrog to the position of second largest global GDP in 2010, the United Nations’ Statistical Annex still regards China as a developing country, meaning China’s economic rise is not over. Even now China is regarded as a challenger to the United States’ influence in the international arena, most recognized in terms of economic strength, military potential, and development ideology. Being aware of this fact, a principle objective of China’s Asian neighbors is to avoid having to choose an alliance with only Washington or only Beijing.
China’s development and, by association, its potential global influence has resulted in the emerging “China threat” argument in the United States, which theorizes that an increasingly powerful China would likely destabilize regional security. This argument encompasses three types of threats all related to China’s rise – the country’s economic growth, military modernization, and ideological effect on the future development pathways of the lesser developed world. In general, the US has maintained some support for its argument, but as China continues to develop, more countries have become neutral on the subject. In the past, this perception of the changing world order has contributed to a negative outlook towards China’s rising power by the United States, incentivizing the country to contain China’s hard (military) and soft (economic and ideational) powers internationally. However, with China’s rising influence in the international arena, this strategy is becoming more difficult to achieve; in fact, it would appear that China has begun to transition into a critical state, meaning without its compliance in international affairs, the achievement of collective goals by the international community will be compromised. This reality has forced the United States to slowly accept China’s changing dynamic in the international arena from a follower to a potential leader and responsible stakeholder to the rest of the international community. However, in order to fully overcome the growing skepticism around China’s ‘peaceful rise,’ effectively fanned during this year’s election circuit, the China threat argument must be formally debunked.
The China threat argument ultimately begins with the implications of the country’s rapid economic development. Beginning in the 1990s when China’s economy first exhibited dramatic growth, China’s potential strength as a global superpower was realized. The looming threat of China’s global economic influence is ever present as the United States and others worry that their inability to compete with cheap Chinese goods in foreign trade practices will dramatically limit their economic prosperity in the future. Although these claims have some merit, consumer countries are doing little to deter China from continuing its manufacturing practices as foreign demand for cheap Chinese goods remains high. Further, the country’s interdependence amongst foreign markets provides insurance that China will not become a significant economic threat as this interdependence will prevent China from leveraging its economic power to influence international policies for fear that it will upset its foreign market.
One result of China’s economic growth is China’s increasing military potential. In the eyes of many, economic strength is the key to military and technological development, potentially turning China’s current population of 1.3 billion from a weakness into a strength, giving the country a basis for a world-class military and technological capability. These sentiments were reinforced during the celebration of the People’s Republic of China’s 60th National Day (2009) which prominently displayed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The demonstration was intended to showcase a favorable image of the country’s armed forces while demonstrating the country’s national economic and social progress. However some, including the United States, misconstrued the display to represent a darker warning: do not underestimate Chinese military capabilities in future conflicts.
It appears the US was blinded by the idea that China could rival its military strength, ignoring the fact that prior to the modernizations, the PLA’s weaponry was out of date and the modernizations just served as a method of balancing military strength relative to the rest of the world. Further, it is important to note that China only asserts its military power in areas that it has long contested and can make somewhat legitimate claims to (for example Taiwan and the South China Sea). This behavior asserts the idea that China will not attempt to challenge the United States on a grander scale in the future, nor will the country turn into an imperialist power. In fact, China’s leaders will likely be preoccupied by their domestic agendas for decades unless the outside world forces itself upon China in unwelcome ways.
In terms of ideological influence, China’s development pathway is viewed as unorthodox as it emphasizes authoritarian values and deemphasizes political liberalization, democratization, and human rights. As a result, China’s economic success is seen as a dangerous future model for the developing world. This fear is perpetuated through the questioning of the Washington Consensus by Latin American and African countries that have followed the liberal paradigm for a long time without success. Despite China’s potential capability to replace the United States as the dominant model for the developing world, it is not actively seeking to push its values or development methods on its lesser developed counterparts. In contrast, China has adopted non-interventionist stances in global development. Instead, shifts away from the US model are attributed mainly to reluctance and unwillingness of a majority of the developed world to take on additional financial commitments to aid the developing world in their industrialization efforts. The United States’ failure to recognize grievances of the Global South distance the developing world from the Global North and US values and attract the South to China and the Beijing Consensus as a new role model. This gravitation towards China could be an advantage for the United States if the country were to strengthen ties with the Chinese. The US could potentially use China as a surrogate for its value systems should China be allowed to work within the current international system.
The effects of globalization in the modern age have created an international community that is increasingly interconnected. This, coupled with a realization of global challenges, such as the escalating threat of global climate change, makes countries’ ability to cooperate even more dire as it will take a collective effort by the international community to come up with a solution. With this being the mutual reality of the times, the United States needs to stop itself from viewing China as an adversary, and instead, accept that China is a poor, overloaded, great power that is focused on its own internal development. Contrary to popular belief, China’s behaviors represent efforts by the country to gain respect and recognition by the rest of the international community and rise to its rightful place in the international community.
